Bold claim: EUR/USD barely budges as markets await Eurozone GDP and US inflation cues, but the core dynamic remains the same—dragging expectations of a Fed rate cut into next week. And this is the part most people miss: the setup hints at a delicate balance between Eurozone resilience and US policy expectations rather than a clear breakout.
EUR/USD traded modestly higher on Friday, hovering around 1.1650 after a rejection near 1.1675 in the early European session. Downside moves have stayed limited so far, as traders price in a quarter-point Federal Reserve cut at next week’s meeting.
Thursday’s data painted a mixed picture: US initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly in the final week of November, though the Thanksgiving holiday period may have distorted the numbers. Separately, Challenger job cuts in November dropped sharply to 71,321 from October’s 153,074, yet hiring plans remained restrained amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
In Europe, attention turns to the Eurozone third estimate of Q3 GDP and the quarter-on-quarter employment change released during the European session. However, the spotlight is likely to stay on September’s delayed US PCE Price Index—the last inflation gauge before next week’s Fed policy decision.
Euro price snapshot
The table below illustrates how the euro fared against major peers today, with the euro showing strength versus the U.S. dollar.
USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.07% -0.15% -0.12% -0.08% -0.20% -0.09% -0.08%
EUR 0.07% -0.08% -0.07% -0.01% -0.12% -0.02% -0.02%
GBP 0.15% 0.08% 0.00% 0.08% -0.04% 0.06% 0.07%
JPY 0.12% 0.07% 0.00% 0.05% -0.07% 0.02% 0.04%
CAD 0.08% 0.00% -0.08% -0.05% -0.13% -0.03% -0.00%
AUD 0.20% 0.12% 0.04% 0.07% 0.13% 0.10% 0.11%
NZD 0.09% 0.02% -0.06% -0.02% 0.03% -0.10% 0.01%
CHF 0.08% 0.02% -0.07% -0.04% 0.00% -0.11% -0.01%
The heat map illustrates relative moves among major currencies, with the left column showing the base and the top row the quote currency. For instance, selecting EUR as the base and USD as the quote yields the displayed percentage change for the EUR/USD pair.
Daily digest: the dollar under pressure amid expectations of Fed easing
- The U.S. dollar has been the weakest among the G8 currencies this week. A softer ADP Employment Change reading earlier in the week reinforced expectations for a rate cut by the Fed next week, while European manufacturing data exceeded expectations, lending support to the euro.
- Eurozone retail sales failed to grow in October, registering 0% versus expectations of 0.1%. September’s figure was revised up to 0.1% from a previously estimated decline. The euro briefly softened after the release but recovered some losses thereafter.
- US initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000 in the last week of November, the lowest in three years, from 218,000 previously. Caution surrounds these figures, given potential distortions from Thanksgiving timing.
- Markets price an 87% probability of a 25 basis point Fed cut at the December 10 meeting, with expectations of two to three additional cuts next year according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
- News that Kevin Hassett might replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair is adding volatility to the dollar. The Financial Times reported that bond investors have expressed concerns to the U.S. Treasury about a potentially aggressive easing path under Hassett.
- In the Eurozone, Friday’s focus is the Q3 GDP estimate, expected to show a 0.2% QoQ and 1.4% YoY expansion, modestly lower than Q2’s 0.1% and 1.5% prints. The euro area Employment Change is forecast at 0.1% QoQ and 0.5% YoY, unchanged from the prior month.
- Later in the day, US PCE Price Index data are anticipated to confirm sticky inflation, with the headline rate rising to 2.8% YoY from 2.7% in August, while the core PCE maintains a steady 2.9% pace.
Technical snapshot: EUR/USD still aims higher but faces resistance near 1.1680
The uptrend in EUR/USD remains intact, with immediate support around 1.1630. The area between 1.1670 and 1.1680 continues to cap upside, while the four-hour RSI sits above 50 at about 61. However, MACD has pulled back below zero, suggesting momentum is softening and a deeper push may be needed to sustain a rally.
To extend the rally, bulls must clear Thursday’s high of 1.1682 and target the 1.1730 region near the October 17 peak, with the 1.1778 level seen as the next major milestone beyond that.
On the downside, a break below 1.1630 could invite a pullback toward weekly lows around 1.1595. If weakness persists, the next targets lie in the 1.1550–1.1555 zone recorded on November 26–28.
Key economic indicators
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ, sa) – Eurostat
The quarterly GDP reading measures the total value of goods and services produced in the Eurozone within the reference quarter, adjusted for seasonality. A higher QoQ GDP is generally euro-positive, while a softer print is bearish. Next release: Fri Dec 5, 2025 at 10:00. Consensus: 0.2%. Previous: 0.2%.
Gross Domestic Product (YoY, sa) – Eurostat
This YoY GDP figure compares the same quarter to the year-ago period. A higher YoY GDP typically supports the euro, whereas a lower print can weigh on EUR. Next release: Fri Dec 5, 2025 at 10:00. Consensus: 1.4%. Previous: 1.4%.
Next steps
If the Q3 GDP data meet expectations and inflation remains sticky, the dollar scenario remains constrained, while the euro could gain traction on improving euro-area growth signals. A decisive move beyond 1.1680 would reinforce a bullish tilt, whereas a break below 1.1630 could extend the downside toward 1.1550.
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